The recent joint statement made by India and Pakistan at Sharm el-Sheikh during the NAM meeting decoupling the composite dialogue on terror and the reference to Balochistan, has drawn the ire of not only the opposition but also, it is said, by a small segment of the ruling party as well.
While some sort of appeasement was made by the Prime Minister with his speech in Parliament, assuring the House that opening a dialogue with Pakistan without first getting them to act against the terrorists responsible for the Mumbai carnage ,did not mean that India would stop pressuring the Pakistanis on this account, the opposition has been far from satisfied. And this despite Sonia Gandhi backing the Prime Minister,stating that the Prime Minister had made a “firm and unequivocal statement” and that the Party was behind him, and that their position vis-à-vis the Government’s stand on the joint statement remained unchanged.
The main objection to the joint statement at Sharm el-Sheikh seems to stem from deep rooted distrust of Pakistan. It is contended that peace with Pakistan will never be attained for the simple reason that the very existence of Pakistan hinges on continuing hostility to India. Kanwal Sibal in Times of India of 31/7/09,states “Adversaries like China exploit the situation to buttress Pakistan economically and militarily,including providing it nuclear muscle ,to contain India .Normalisation will enhance India’s status,but will deflate Pakistan’s utility to others”. In short ,there must be no talk with Pakistan, and if we had to talk at Sharm el-Sheikh then “the supposed muscular harangue to Pakistan should have shown somewhere in the pectorals of the joint statement”.
As far as the reference to Balochistan and “other areas” is concerned , the opposition feels it was inserted due to the inept wording of the joint statement,or because of machinations of the Pakistani team,that left their Indian counterparts floundering . The Indian Prime Minister drew flak,according to Neelabh Mishra (Outlook Magazine, of Aug 10,2009) from “ hawkish security analysts ,the hardline BJP, the shrill media and from some in its own confused Congress party”. To compound matters , the Pakistan establishment “leaked”, a so-called, dossier to the media providing “evidence” of the Indian hand in Balochistan.(The PM has denied in Parliament that any such dossier was given by Pakistan. Pakistan's Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Omar Zaman Kaira, has also denied that Pakistan had handed any such dossier to India)
There is, however, much hand-wringing over Balochistan . According to Kanwal Sibal, by dragging our consulates into such a controversy, Pakistan has been given “domestic and international legitimacy-the agenda of terrorism has now become more ‘equal’ for Pakistan”.
Well,that is one view. The flipside is that it is Yusuf Raza Gilani who should have thought twice before raising the issue of Balochistan at Sharm el-Sheikh. Balochistan is not an issue between India and Pakistan per se ,it is much more than that. There are plenty of nations who are fishing in the troubled waters of Balochistan . According to Ashok Malik , for some time Balochistan has been emerging as the “locus of a new Great Game”.So internationalizing the issue may well redound on Pakistan. As far as the Baloch are concerned they feel the controversy is a blessing in disguise. It has helped to internationalise the issue. The Baloch leader,Hytbyair Marri says, “International community is taking interest now. For last 60 years it was ignored, now they can see that Baloch can play a key role in the area”.
The American view is Pakistan is merely trying to externalize a serious internal crisis while evading responsibility to crack down on home-grown terrorism. US Envoy to AfPak Richard Holbrooke has rubbished the Pakistani claim that India is actively encouraging insurgency in Balochistan He has stated that Pakistan provided no evidence of Indian involvolment in Balochistan.,and that Washington attaches no credibility to Islamabad's charges in this regard Though C Christine Fair, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, while discounting the accusations made by Pakistan, which she feels is because they wish to “establish some kind of theory of victimization”, and that “having done far more nefarious things ,will always assume the worst”, India is doing what every other country involved In Afghanista is doing, developing information and contacts and “trying to assert itself politically”. That perhaps is closer to the truth of India’s involvement in the affairs of Balochistan.
Accusations against India in interfering in Balochistan are nothing new. In 2006 when India had expressed concern over the Pakistani military using helicopter gunships to bombard rebel positions in Balochistan, Pakistan had gone ballistic,saying this was gross interference in its internal affairs. They had further accused India and the United States of fomenting troubles there. The Indian consulates located in the Baloch area of Zahedan in Iran and in Kandahar and Jalalabad in Afghanistan had been accused of encouraging the Baloch rebels and providing training to the shadowy Balochistan Liberation Army(BLA).
The Baloch problem needs to be examined a little bit more in depth.
For a starter, it must be understood that Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan by geographical area consisiting 48% of Pakistan. It has a population of 6.5 million as per the census of 1998.Iran borders it in the west ,Afghanistan and NWFP in the north, and Punjab and Sindh in the east. . Further south and west lies the Makran desert ,adjoining the Iranian desert of Balochistan and Dasht-I-Lut
Spread over 147,000 square miles ,Balochistan has only 5% of Pakistan’s population. .But what makes it a bone of contention is its richness in mineral resources and the fact that after Sindh it is the main supplier of natural gas to Pakistan. Because of its immense natural and energy resources, sitting as it does astride the oil lanes of the Persian Gulf,at the triangle where Pakistan,Iran and Afghanistan meet,makes it geopolitically and strategically, the most important part of Pakistan.It commands nearly the entire 470 miles of the Arabian Sea coast line. The Gwadar Port on the Makran coast built by the Chinese in 2008 as a part of their “string of pearls” strategy gives Balochistan immense strategic importance
There were originally four princely states in existence during the British Raj,which were ultimately combined into one,Kalat, in 1876. Quetta and a few other districts belonging to Afghanistan were ceded to India after the Second Afghan War. The Bolan Pass,lying to the SE of Quetta,and entering Balochistan from Kandhar, was also leased on a permanent basis from the Khan of Kalat. In 1893,in a negotiated settlement with the Amir of Afghanistan, the British fixed the Durand line from Chitral to Balochistan, This split the Baloch from Afghanistan and Iran from their kin in what was then West Punjab. While the northern portion of Balochisthan has been made into a sort of Pashtun strong hold, courtesy Pakistan, the southern portion which has nomadic Baloch communities,have been restive for decades. Islamabad’s writ does not run here nor did Britain’s. ( The Durand Line drawn to divide Pashtun and Baloch tribes of the area into international borders of Iran,Afghanistan and what was then West Punjab,found the nomadic ways of Baloch,disrupted by the international border. This has primarily sown the seeds of the strife in Balochistan).
Balochistan was brought under British suzerainty from Khan of Kalat in bits and pieces between 1876 and 1883. The British colonial administration subsequently divided Balochistan into ‘ A’ and ‘B’ Areas: 5 per cent of the ‘A’ Area was directly administered by the British, while they exercised only proxy control over the 95 per cent 'B' Area through the Sardars or tribal chiefs. The system was continued after Independence by the Pakistan Establishment till 2004, when President Pervez Musharraf declared that his Government would crush all anti-Pakistan movements. The entire 95 per cent 'B area' was to be made into 'A’Area', five districts in the 'B’ Area having already been declared 'A’ Area.
Baloch and Pashtuns are the main ethnic groups in Balochistan. The Baloch trace their ancestry to Syrian and Persian backgrounds, they have always considered themselves ethnically different from the other tribes inhabiting the people of the Indo-Gangetic plains..They have from time immemorial considered themselves an independent nation, ruled by feudal lords. Historically, the Baloch have been a loose confederacy owing allegiance to the Persian emperor and Afghan kings in different times of its history.
So the Baloch are spread from Pakistan to Afghanistan and Iran. While the Baloch of Pakistan and Afghanistan have a common link, the Iranian Baloch,who are a Sunni minority in Shia-majority Iran, have a different tribal composition from the Pakistani Baloch. However, all distrust their respective governments. The region thus makes it ripe for regional and foreign powers to play their little games. The Russians,for instance , had made efforts to foment a rebellion in Balochistan during their occupation of Afghanistan. Iraq was hoping to instigate violence amongst the Iranian Baloch during the Iraq-Iran war. The Afghans,of course, have been doing their damndest to destablise Pakistan- and Balochistan is the obvious choice to play this out. Afghanistan does not recognize the Durand Line ,and claims parts of NWFP and Balochistan as part of their territory.
The Americans were keen(and probably still are) to cause a bit of mayhem amongst the Iranian Baloch. They are interested in Pakistan Balochistan because of a large number of refugees from the Afghan war, making Northern Balochisthan a Pushtun base(Quetta is known to harbour Mullah Omar’s Taliban sharia). Above all,the Gwadar Port’s strategic value to China, located as it is on the Makran coast in the proximity of the Gulf of Hormuz.where it can monitor US naval activity in the Persian Gulf, Indian activity in the Arabian Sea and future US-Indian maritime cooperation in the Indian Ocean will continue to be of deep concern to America,India and Iran.
However, the problems Pakistan is facing are basically what it inherited from the British and what are self- created . Besides the historical causes of disgruntlement amongst the Baloch, the Pakistani ham-handed way of trying to douse the fire raging in Balochistan, has resulted in further exacerbating the problem. There have been five distinct attempts, since the forcible annexation of Balochistan in 1948, where disproportionate force,including the systematic killing of Baloch leaders, to suppress the discontentment amongst the Baloch has taken place. Their attempts to assimilate the Baloch in the main stream by development projects have largely back-fired. . If the Pakistan government succeeds in transforming all of Balochistan into ‘A’ Areas then the power of the Sardars,who jealously guard their socio-political and financial control in the regions,will erode. This probably makes the current insurgency radically different from past ones. .Baloch efforts to voice their concerns through political dialogue, have mostly been ignored.
Amongst the litany of complaints and demands the Baloch want are equitable distribution of proceeds from natural resources, employment opportunities(since the Baloch are treated as traitors,they have been denied representation in the military and central government jobs), political self-determination, end to military oppression and stopping of mega projects ,which benefit only non-Baloch. The Gwadar project, completed in 2008, was bitterly opposed by Baloch nationlists,as they felt that the Punjabi-dominated elite were siphoning off all the wealth and resources from their backward region,besides making huge profits from the rising prices in real estate around Gwadar. These were the main causes which had triggered off angry and violent demonstrations resulting in attacks on pipelines carrying oil from Balochistan. Earlier, three Chinese emgineers were killed and 11 others,including 9 Chinese were injured in bomb attacks by BLA.
A particular complaint is the pitting of radical Taliban against the secular and basically democratic Baloch with the help of Arab countries. This has upset the representation of Baloch in the Balochistan Assembly by causing a demographic imbalance. Of course, underlying all these demands is the historical demand for an independent Balochistan to hopefully include their brethren so arbitrarily and cruelly separated by the Durand Line.
Baloch nationalism poses the biggest threat to the integrity of Pakistan. This is rearing its head after some 30 years of uneasy peace. The current insurgency has been brought about by Islambad’s plans to transform the very character of Balochistan,and by the killing of Baloch leaders ,like Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti,whose grand-son ,Brahamdagh Bugti, is carrying on the rebellion. According to Malik Siraj Akbar of Pakistan’s Daily Times. “ The Baloch movement is rapidly trickling down from tribal chiefs to educated boys and girls, who aggressively propagate their cause”, and who would more than welcome any foreign assistance like India.
With its vast potential for a range of natural resources,including oil,uranium,copper and other minerals,its crtical strategic location,Balochistan.commands about 470 miles of the Arabian Sea coast line. Sitting as it does astride the oil lanes of the Persian Gulf, at the triangle where Pakistan, Iran and ,Afghanistan meet makes it one of the most important geopolitical and strategic locations in the region..The development of the Gwadar Port through Chinese assistance gives Balochistan an added potential of future conflict-a return to the Great Game perhaps. For Pakistan(and by implication ,China) it is imperative that Balochistan becomes stable, otherwise both the functioning of the Gwadar Part and the fuel pipelines to Pakistan, will continue to be in jeopardy, at the mercy of the discontented Baloch.
Is there,therefore, any reason why regional powers should not be using and abetting Baloch tensions for their own reasons? . India is well aware of the happenings in Balochistan. Whether it is actively encouraging or inciting insurgency, as alleged by Pakistan ,is a moot question and highly unlikely. The accusation of an Indian hand in the attacks on the Sri Lanka team in March 2009,and the police training academy , are obviously a case of tit-for-tat, a sort of finding a way to pay India back in their own coin for pressurizing them over Mumbai, and put the Indians on the back foot.
India has quite a massive investment in Afghanistan,there is also the question of the proposed gas Iran-Pakistan-India pipe-line,which will be passing through Balochistan. So we do have a stake in what happens there. Our consuls in Zahedan in Iran and in Kandahar and Jalalabad in Afghanistan are there to ensure that like all countries, India, too, is “developing information and contacts and trying to assert itself politically”.
What matters, as Khalid Ahmed,of Pakistan’s Daily Times says, is that “The sooner the two countries resume the normalization process, the better it would be for both” . There is really no other alternative as Prime Minister,Manmohan Singh, and his predecessor, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, had clearly seen.
For India’s policy has always been that the only way forward with Pakistan is through dialogue. The Pakistanis may drag their feet in meeting all demands made by India ,but will ultimately see the light. We cannot shove our views down their throats - unless we go to war. Even the Yanks cannot do it. So there really is no option but to negotiate, negotiate and again negotiate.That is the only sensible path for peace, so that both our countries can get on with our lives and live as good neighbours. As Chetan Bhagat, writing In The Hindusthan Times has put it, “Every single Indian’s future is linked to Pakistan”.
So can one fault Manmohan Singh for thinking that if we are to progress in our mission for peace in the sub-continent we have to cease being prisoners of our old mindsets ?
Dehra Dun Lt Gen (Retd) RK Jasbir Singh
23 August 24, 2009
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